How Can Florian Wirtz Improve Liverpool & the Comparison with Rayan Cherki [Transfer Analysis by the Numbers #1]
One of the biggest transfer rumours so far would be Florian Wirtz who is reported to move to the champions of England. His transfer fee seems to easily exceed £100m and it is reported that Leverkusen want £120m. After securing Jeremie Frimpong to replace Trent Alexander-Arnold who joined Real Madrid, what Liverpool seek is not only finding the replacement but also strengthening the level of the squad.
To be fair, Liverpool had the solid central or attacking midfield, Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexis Mac Allister or Curtis Jones. Wirtz might play as false 9 with them, but naturally he would compete his position with Szoboszlai, Mac Allister or Curtis Jones. Therefore, it must be considered what he can bring to the team and what he does better than them. This would be the main topic of this article.
Another consideration is if the price tag is reasonable or not. As reported, Rayan Cherki, who is another attacking midfielder and seems to find top clubs in Europe, is much cheaper than Wirtz as the transfer fee is said to be around £20-25m (even though some media reported that there is no such a release clause in his contract at the moment this article is being written). He is mainly targeted by Man City, but it is revealed that Arne Slot spoke to him in France. Thus, comparing him with Wirtz can give us some insights about his price tag demanded by Leverkusen.
Let’s find out based on data analysis.
Wirtz & Other Liverpool Players in 24-25
First of all, let’s compare Wirtz with existing Liverpool’s central & attacking midfielders. The table below shows their total stats in the league games last season, which relate to goals or assists.
Even though there are four less games in Bundesliga, Wirtz recorded more goals and assists than Liverpool’s midfielders last season. He managed to score 10 goals including two penalties and assisted 12 times, which is twice as many as Szoboszlai. Compared with expected goals or assists, he outperformed the expectation in both stats. However, his xA is only 7.0 and it is less than Szoboszlai, and this overperformance can be attributed to his teammates who scored goals more than the expectations.
In the table below, the stats including other cup games per 90 minutes are listed.
Obviously, his data is much greater than others. In addition to goals or assists, when looking at shot-creating actions, which counts two offensive actions directly leading to a shot, it is possible to say that he consistently gets involved in creating chances to take a shot.
The table below shows the general stats to see what he did before getting involved in scoring goals.
He passed more but he made more mistakes. His pass completion % is the lowest among them, but this can be attributed to his tendency to play more attacking and progressive passes. Not only passes but also he made more progressive carries or successful take-ons. However, he is not just a player who gives the ball to the attackers or progresses it, but he can receive it in advanced areas. He received (or touched) the ball in the opposition box and progressive passes more than others. This is the biggest difference when comparing him with other midfielders in Liverpool.
When considering him as just a midfielder, his attacking ability which directly reflects on the scoreboard is outstanding in Liverpool. Then, how about comparing with the attackers?
In the table above, Liverpool’s possible number 9s are listed and the data in the league last season is shown. When just looking at the stats relating goals, Luis Díaz, who mainly played as the left winger but occasionally played as the 9, generated more goals and expected goals. However, the ability of Wirtz to feed others, or assist, is by far better than others.
Therefore, in short, his profile to relate to goals by scoring or assisting is quite unique in the squad and he is just in between the midfielders and attackers. His addition would be something like creating the difference rather than upgrading the existing roles.
The Analysis of Wirtz from His Debut
In this chapter, let’s have a look at his career so far.
These are the data in the league and his age at the beginning of each season is also noted. He made less starts in 22-23, but this is due to his knee injury occured on March in 2022. Except for the expected assists in 21-22, his peak performance was last year when only looking at his goal contribution.
It was not only him but also the team itself was outstanding last year. Leverkusen enjoyed one of the greatest achievements in history and Wirtz was in the centre of that. Obviously, they could not win the league back to back, but he still contributed more than 20 goals this season and maintained his performance at the highest level.
The manager Xabi Alonso had already left and some of other players including Frimpong made moves to the other clubs, so it is quite natural that he follows it and finds a new club.
Comparison with Rayan Cherki
Another attacking midfielder who is targeted by other big clubs is Rayan Cherki. He was also born in 2023 and considered as one of the best young talents along with Wirtz. Not only his talent, his transfer cost is also considered as a key in this transfer market. It is still unsure how much it costs, but it is definitely lower than Wirtz, who Leverkusen want more than £100m.
The table below compares their stats in each league last season.
Even though Wirtz had fewer games in total in Germany, he started and played more than Cherki. This could directly affect the result that Wirtz scored and assisted more. However, if looking at the expected goals and assists, Cherki overperformed more than the expectation in scoring goals and generated more expected assists compared with Wirtz.
In terms of the stats per 90 minutes, Wirtz was better at scoring goals or taking shots, but on the other hand, Cherki was better in the number of assists or shot-creating actions. This might be the difference between their playing style.
As seen in the table above, Cherki made more progressive passes or carries while Wirtz received more progressive passes. This enables us to assume that Wirtz tended to be a receiver and Cherki fed to other attackers. As it was already discussed, other Liverpool midfielders can do this task and if the addition of Wirtz is to add a different type of player, they should pick Wirtz over Cherki.
In short, Wirtz would be a different type of player in Liverpool’s squad and can establish his own role under Slot. On the other hand, Cherki also generated different performances compared to Wirtz, so it cannot be a discussion of the cost because they are different players.
(All data from FBref)
